More records were broken Tuesday when the presidential candidates made their way to New Hampshire. While the Democrat’s voter record was not broken, they contributed to the overall high voter turnout of 538,094, edging out the 2008 total voter turnout by around 11,000 ballots cast. The Republican voter turnout shattered previous records; 284, 120 voters cast ballots — an increase of nearly 12,000 on the Republican side alone over the previous record-setting election (248,475).
There were a number of surprises in New Hampshire. Most shocking to me was Kasich’s taking second place and receiving almost 16 percent of the Republican vote. Kasich came off of a debate performance where he looked more comfortable than previously and, apparently, where he impressed potential voters. I was surprised to see this large of a jump in his numbers, even while refusing to use negative ads against the other candidates — a tactic which has proven very successful in New Hampshire in the past. Kasich needed this revitalization to his campaign after a not-so-strong debate performance on January 28 and a sheer beat down in the Iowa caucuses.
The amount of votes that Trump received was staggering to me, too. I knew going in that he was likely to win New Hampshire, as up to 34 percent of New Hampshire voters register as Independent and are, therefore, more likely to vote away from the “politician choices.” What I was not prepared for was Trump’s capturing of more than a third of New Hampshire (35 percent). Trump received 10 delegates to the next nearest candidate’s four, so it was quite a victory for him.
More surprises: Rubio dropped into fifth place, below Bush, who previously received only 3 percent of the vote in Iowa. Bush, like Kasich, desperately needed this attention from voters, but unlike Kasich, has remained extremely positive about his campaign — easy to do when you have the amount of financial support he does, I guess. Rubio hasn’t been doing so hot lately. He’s been called “robotic” and “too rehearsed” after, in a couple cases, he has repeated almost exactly the same words several times in speeches. Rubio said it himself, he didn’t do well when it mattered leading up to New Hampshire. Cruz did well to fly under the radar and focus his energy on South Carolina, amid some accusations of illegal campaign activity, taking third. I expect him to win there, as he has captured the evangelical vote for the most part. Christie and Fiorina did not receive enough support to justify continuing their campaigns, and as expected suspended them in the following days. If Carson has another performance like that of the 2 percent he earned in New Hampshire, he could be next.
In short, the Republicans’ race could turn into a 2-person one. If Cruz does as well as many expect in South Carolina, he and the Trumpster could simply be too far out in front to catch.
As far as the Democratic vote goes… well, what’d I tell you? Bernie received a whopping 60 percent of the vote to Hillary’s 38. This is due, mostly, to the state’s large number of Independents (Bernie is registered Independent as a Vermont senator). Bernie received 15 delegates to Hillary’s 9, but the two are tied going forward, as six out of eight of the “super delegates” have declared for Clinton. I expect that, in South Carolina, Sanders will not be able to overcome the large discrepancy in the African-American vote and will lose, potentially big, to Clinton.
