Kevin McCarthy, the House Republican Leader, was widely expected to become Speaker of the House after republicans picked up a net gain of 10 seats just a few months ago, giving them the majority.
However, what happened last week was a very rare and unprecedented event. For the first time in what was exactly 100 years on Jan. 3, a vote for Speaker of the House of Representatives failed on the first ballot.
According to Article I Section Two of the United States Constitution “The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other officers”. The Speaker of the House is chosen by a majority of the House, and McCarthy did not have the votes.
20 Republican Representatives, mostly of the Freedom Caucus now dubbed by many as the “House Conservative Rebels” or the “Republican Rebels”, were holding out their votes against Kevin McCarthy for various reasons. Some wanted rule changes and committee assignments while others just did not want McCarthy with the Speaker’s gavel. With a slim 20-seat majority, he could only afford to lose four without failing to get a majority.
The rebels stood together for a historic 11 ballots until McCarthy gained the votes of 14 rebels after conceding a plethora of power and changes to the rebels liking on the 12th ballot. Finally, after 15 ballots and the six remaining rebels voting present instead of no, Kevin McCarthy had a majority and was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives for the 118th Congress.
The nearly weeklong vote for the Speakership demonstrated not only a political event most of the population was not alive to see, but insight into what will likely be a chaotic and dysfunctional Republican-controlled House for the next two years. The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the most powerful person in Congress and third in line to the presidency under the Vice President. The reality for Speaker McCarthy though is that he will not hold as much power as most of his predecessors.
The first issue for our new Speaker is that he will have to deal with a Democratic President and Democratic Senate, which while he still has significant power as Speaker, has given most of it away to the rebels in his own party. The second issue for Kevin McCarthy is that he does not have a natural grip over his party and conference like many Speakers of the past. With a 10-seat majority, 20 rebels, and a party that it seems he can never satisfy, Kevin McCarthy will likely be a less influential Speaker. Former Speaker, Nancy Pelosi said recently in an interview with MSNBC that “What we are seeing is the incredibly shrinking speakership.”.
This spectacle that was shown gave the American people a preview of the chaos that is likely to come with the new Republican House, and it gives the impression to the public that Republicans cannot govern if it takes them an entire week to choose their leader.
Undoubtedly, how Kevin McCarthy chooses to govern throughout these next two years, if he even can at this point, will have ramifications on the 2024 elections. Kevin McCarthy has the title of Speaker, but most of his leverage and power was conceded to the extreme part of his conference, making him Speaker in name only.
